What moved this week and what it means for expats in SE Asia
Markets, currencies, and macro events filtered through one lens: what does it mean for a European professional living in Malaysia, Singapore, or Thailand with assets spread across multiple jurisdictions?
This week: Iran deal collapses, Trump meets Xi in Beijing, and UK gilt yields hit 28-year highs
The Iran-US deal that briefly crashed oil 14% has fallen apart. Iran's counter-proposal demanded an end to all regional fighting, the lifting of the naval blockade, and deferred nuclear talks. Trump called it "totally unacceptable." Oil surged 7% back to $107 as the market repriced escalation risk. For European expats in Singapore and Thailand, where energy costs feed directly into local inflation, the cost-of-living picture just got harder again.
Trump is now in Beijing for a state visit through May 15, the first by a US president in nine years. The agenda centres on trade, tariffs, and pressing Xi to use China's leverage over Iran. China buys more than 80% of Iran's shipped crude. If Xi agrees to pressure Tehran, a narrow path to renewed talks exists. If not, Trump's aides are signalling potential resumption of combat operations. This is the last diplomatic lever before escalation.
The bigger surprise for British expats is in the gilt market. UK 30-year gilt yields have hit 5.76%, the highest since 1998. The 10-year is above 5.1%, levels not seen since 2008. The Bank of England held at 3.75% in April, but markets are now pricing rate hikes, not cuts. For anyone with a defined benefit pension, this matters directly: rising gilt yields push down DB pension transfer values. Transfer values today are likely lower than they were three months ago.
Kevin Warsh was confirmed as a Federal Reserve Governor on Monday in a 51-45 vote. His chair confirmation vote is expected Wednesday, with the handover from Powell on Thursday. Warsh is a known hawk. J.P. Morgan's view holds: no rate cuts in 2026, with the next move potentially a hike in Q3 2027. For USD-earning expats, cash still yields above 3.5%, but the inflation constraint from $107 oil is not loosening.
Currency rates relevant to European expats in SE Asia
As at Tuesday 13 May 2026. Rates are indicative. Source: Bloomberg mid-market rates.
Currency context for this week
FX markets were quiet this week despite the geopolitical drama. GBP eased marginally against Asian currencies as the dollar firmed on risk-off positioning following the Iran deal collapse. For British expats remitting from UK pensions or making transfers to Malaysia, the rate is marginally less favourable than a week ago but remains within the range seen over the past month. The ringgit continues to hold near its strongest levels since 2018, supported by oil at $107 and World Bank growth forecasts of 4.4%.
For euro-zone expats (French, German, Dutch, Spanish), EUR/MYR has been stable around 4.60, reflecting a flat EUR/USD and a resilient ringgit. The Trump-Xi summit outcome could shift the dollar materially in either direction: a breakthrough on Iran would weaken the dollar (risk-on), while a breakdown would strengthen it (risk-off). Both GBP and EUR cross-rates to SGD and THB would move accordingly.
What this week's moves mean for your portfolio
The S&P 500 and global equity markets remain near all-time highs. For expats holding Irish UCITS portfolios (IWDA, VWRA, or similar global equity trackers), the portfolio is doing what it should: compounding steadily through a noisy news cycle. Oil at $107, an Iran deal collapse, and a US-China summit are dramatic headlines. For a diversified, globally allocated portfolio with a 10-year horizon, they are not planning events.
The significant signal this week is in UK gilt yields, not equities. The 30-year gilt yield has surged to 5.76%, its highest level since 1998. This matters directly for DB pension transfer values. CETVs are inversely related to long gilt yields: as yields rise, actuaries apply a higher discount rate, and transfer values fall. If you have a pending DB pension transfer decision, your CETV today is likely lower than it was three months ago.
Clients with deferred pensions now face rising yields that could erode transfer values further. The analysis is worth completing now. Waiting for clarity on yields means accepting an unknown direction of travel on a permanent, irreversible decision.
Connect market moves to your specific situation
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