What moved this week and what it means for expats in SE Asia
Markets, currencies, and macro events filtered through one lens: what does it mean for a European professional living in Malaysia, Singapore, or Thailand with assets spread across multiple jurisdictions?
British borrowing costs hit a nineteen-year high, oil went back above $100, and a September rate rise in America is now almost fully priced
British government borrowing costs jumped this week. The ten-year gilt yield rose above 5.29% on 10 September, its highest since 2007. Thirty-year gilts went above 5.9%, a level last seen in 1998. The push came from outside Britain: oil back above $100 and strong American data lifted long-dated yields everywhere, and the American ten-year touched its highest since late 2023. Reporting on the selloff now ties it to how much room the Chancellor has before the 28 October Budget. For anyone holding a defined benefit pension in Britain, higher gilt yields mean lower transfer values, and a week like this shows why that decision should never be timed.
Brent settled at $104.61 on Friday, about 8% higher on the week. On Thursday it touched $108 and settled at $107.63, its highest close since 19 May. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline, its main route around the Strait of Hormuz, as a precaution after several attacks. Houthi forces were reported to have moved onto Perim Island at the southern mouth of the Red Sea. Oil fell on Friday when Iran said it would meet Gulf states in Oman. Oman postponed those talks late on 13 September, and no new date has been set. Bahrain had already said it would not attend. For households in Singapore, Bangkok or Kuala Lumpur, fuel, freight and airfares stay exposed.
The American rate question stopped swinging and settled. August inflation held at 3.4% a year but rose 0.4% in the month, the largest monthly rise in three months, and core prices came in slightly above forecast. Markets now put the chance of a quarter-point rise at the Federal Reserve's 16 September meeting between 85% and 90%, up from 57% to 70% a week earlier. The Bank of England decides a day later, on 17 September, where a hold at 3.75% is expected. Anyone with a dollar or sterling mortgage on a tracker rate should expect that cost to rise before it falls.
Sterling had its best week in a month for clients based in Southeast Asia. It rose 0.48% against the ringgit and 0.28% against the baht, and was flat against the Singapore dollar. It also slipped less against the dollar than the euro did, the first week in five that sterling has beaten the euro. The ringgit weakened for a second week, to 4.07 against the dollar, as expectations of an American rate rise lifted the dollar. A euro earner in Kuala Lumpur gained 0.38% on the week. A sterling earner in Singapore stood still.
Formal Budget representations to the Treasury closed on 9 September. The Budget itself is 44 days away. The consultation on raising the minimum pension age to 57 closes on 28 September. Speculation about the £268,275 cap on the tax-free lump sum continues, and nothing has been published.
American shares fell across the board. The S&P 500 lost 0.80% to 7,656.98, the Dow 1.57% to 52,573.29 and the Nasdaq 0.66% to 26,333.04. The Russell 2000 of smaller companies fell 2.38%, the worst of the four, because a rate rise reaches companies with floating-rate debt first. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.55% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 3.30%, the first week in four that both moved the same way. Gold fell for a third week, to between $4,350 and $4,385, in a week oil rose 8%. The volatility index rose to 15.84.
Currency rates relevant to European expats in SE Asia
As at Friday 11 September close. Rates are indicative. Source: European Central Bank reference rates.
Currency context for this week
Sterling gained against two of the three Southeast Asian currencies that matter most to our clients. GBP/MYR rose 0.48% to 5.50 and GBP/THB 0.28% to 44.66, while GBP/SGD was flat at 1.71. A week earlier Singapore and Thailand were sterling's two worst crosses. This week Malaysia and Thailand were its two best. EUR/MYR rose 0.38% to 4.72. None of these moves is large on its own. On a school-fee payment or a property deposit converted from London or Frankfurt, the gap between two consecutive weeks is still real money.
The ringgit weakened 0.64% against the dollar to 4.07, a second weekly fall. Bank Muamalat's chief economist put it down to the dollar firming on rate-rise expectations. For someone paid in dollars and spending in ringgit, that helped. For someone paid in ringgit with a euro or sterling mortgage at home, it went the other way. With the Fed and the Bank of England both deciding this week, the next move is two-way, and a standing monthly transfer needs no change on the strength of it.
What this week's moves mean for your portfolio
The week's main event for long-term portfolios happened in the bond market, not the share market. Thirty-year gilts at their highest since 1998 change the arithmetic for anyone with a British defined benefit pension, because transfer values fall as yields rise. They also raise the income a fixed-income allocation can lock in. Neither point is a reason to act this week. Both are reasons to know where the numbers stand before the Budget on 28 October.
Gold fell for a third straight week, in a week oil rose 8% and a Saudi export route closed. It has now ignored a Gulf war, a de-escalation and a re-escalation, and has moved on the dollar and interest rates each time. Held as structural ballast inside a diversified portfolio, sized for an ordinary job, it earns its place. Held as protection against one specific fear, the evidence of 2026 does not support it.
Smaller companies fell three times as far as the S&P 500 as rate-rise odds climbed. A globally diversified core held through Irish-domiciled accumulating UCITS funds needed no view this week on the Fed, the Red Sea or which Asian market would fall further. It needed the right currency and the right wrapper, with no American estate-tax exposure. That work is done once, and it does not depend on the week.
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