What moved this week and what it means for expats in SE Asia
Markets, currencies, and macro events filtered through one lens: what does it mean for a European professional living in Malaysia, Singapore, or Thailand with assets spread across multiple jurisdictions?
Borrowing costs hit multi-decade highs in Washington, London and Tokyo, then a weak American jobs report took October's rate rise off the table
Long-term borrowing costs rose across the developed world this week. On 1 October the American ten-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002. The same day the British ten-year gilt reached 5.5%, its highest since July 2007, and the thirty-year gilt touched 6% for the first time since 1998. Japanese and euro-area yields rose with them. Economist Diane Swonk pointed to record government borrowing landing at the same time as heavy borrowing for AI data centres. For an expat with a mortgage back home, a fixed rate ending in 2027, or a business loan in the Gulf, money got more expensive again this week without any central bank moving.
On Friday the picture changed. The American economy added just 29,000 jobs in September against forecasts of around 84,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, wage growth slowed to 3%, and the previous two months were revised down by 60,000. Markets cut the chance of a Federal Reserve rise on 28 October from about two in three to 17%, and now expect the next rise in December. Treasury yields fell on the news, then climbed back to end the day at 5.28%.
In the Gulf, three tankers were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on 29 September, and the United States sent a third aircraft carrier group and 2,000 Marines. Iran says its seven-day plan to reopen the strait still stands and that it is waiting for a formal American answer. On 2 October the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel over four months, with a large share of the diesel in the first twenty days. Brent is now quoted on the December contract and ended the week at $102.25. That is about 2% below last week's November price, but nearly 5% above where December itself traded a week ago. On a like-for-like basis, oil rose this week.
The consultation on raising the minimum pension age to 57 closed on 28 September. Two more British dates are close. The Budget is on 28 October, 24 days away, on the same day as the Fed's decision. The deadline for larger schemes to connect to pensions dashboards follows on 31 October. The state pension is still on course to rise 3.9% next April. Speculation about the tax-free lump sum and pension tax relief continues, and nothing has been published.
Currency rates relevant to European expats in SE Asia
As at Friday 2 October. Rates are indicative. Source: European Central Bank reference rates, set shortly before the American jobs report that afternoon.
Currency context for this week
The euro was the weak currency this week. It fell 1.56% against the dollar to 1.1225, its lowest since May 2025 and its fourth weekly fall, weighed down by oil, rising euro-area inflation and political and fiscal uncertainty in Europe. EUR/MYR fell from 4.65 to 4.58, so a German or Dutch professional in Malaysia got noticeably fewer ringgit for the same monthly transfer. Sterling held up better and beat the euro for the first time in three weeks. GBP/MYR slipped from 5.40 to 5.39 and GBP/SGD held at 1.69, while GBP/THB rose from 44.19 to 44.35, sterling's only gain.
The ringgit weakened slightly against the dollar, from 4.0740 to 4.0845, in a narrow and cautious week. Bank Negara's closing rate and the European Central Bank's reference rate agreed again. The reference rates above were set on Friday afternoon in Europe, shortly before the American jobs report. Sterling rose to about 1.3236 against the dollar afterwards, so a transfer booked late on Friday got a better rate than these figures show. On a school-fee payment or a property deposit, the hour of the conversion can matter as much as the day.
What this week's moves mean for your portfolio
Shares split. The S&P 500 slipped 0.27% to 7,722.72 and the Dow fell 1.26%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.45%. In Asia the Nikkei rose 2.93% and the Hang Seng fell 2.19%. The VIX ended at 15.31 in a week when three major bond markets touched multi-decade highs.
For British defined benefit pensions, the gilt moves matter most. Higher gilt yields mean lower transfer values, and the thirty-year gilt touched 6% this week. Anyone weighing a transfer should not try to time it around a single week, and should know where their figures stand before the Budget on 28 October. The same yields mean new money in a ten-year gilt now earns more income than at any time since 2007.
Gold fell 3.38% to $4,140, its second weekly fall and about 26% below January's high. It moved again with the dollar and with yields, not with the news from Hormuz. The core of the portfolio, held through Irish-domiciled accumulating UCITS funds in the right currency and without American estate-tax exposure, did not need a view on gold or on Hormuz.
Connect market moves to your specific situation
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