What moved this week and what it means for expats in SE Asia

American shares closed at a record on Tuesday. The S&P 500 finished at 7,818.93 on 6 October, its first record close since mid-August, and ended the week 1.15% higher at 7,811.54. The Federal Reserve's minutes from its September meeting, published on Wednesday, showed most members expect one more rate rise this year. Markets now see October as a pause and December as the likelier month, with roughly a two-in-three chance priced. September's American inflation figures arrive on Wednesday 14 October. Forecasts point to a rise from 3.4% to around 3.6% or 3.7%, driven by record petrol prices.

Around the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on tankers reached their highest weekly level of the war. Governments kept adding supply. President Trump said Russia had agreed to release up to 4.8 million tonnes of diesel, and the International Energy Agency agreed to speed up releases from emergency stocks. On Thursday Trump said the United States would not strike Iran before the 3 November midterm elections. Brent ended the week at $104.43, about 2% higher. On Saturday a Houthi missile hit Riyadh's main airport, killing at least 12 people and wounding more than 300. It was the third strike on that airport in a week. The prices on this page are Friday's closes, set before that attack. When oil reopened on Monday morning in Asia, Brent rose about 1% to $105.56 and gold barely moved.

In Britain, the Budget is on 28 October, 16 days away and on the same day as the Fed's decision. It is the first under Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Chancellor John Healey has kept the pledge not to raise the rates of income tax, VAT or employee National Insurance. No pension measures have been published, and nothing on the tax-free lump sum has been proposed. The ten-year gilt yield rose to 5.42%, close to its highest in nineteen years, and markets expect the Bank of England to raise rates on 5 November. The deadline for larger schemes to connect to pensions dashboards follows on 31 October.

Malaysia tabled its 2027 Budget on Friday. Spending and investment rise to RM510 billion from RM470 billion. The government aims to cut the deficit to 3.3% of GDP next year and to 3% in 2028, with debt easing to 63.7% of GDP. The ringgit ended the week flat against the dollar at 4.085. Bank Negara next sets rates on 5 November, the same day as the Bank of England.

Shares rose in New York and Asia. The S&P 500 gained 1.15%, the Nasdaq 0.64% and the Dow 0.93%, while smaller American companies fell for a fifth week. In Asia the Nikkei rose 1.06% and the Hang Seng 1.00%. The VIX, Wall Street's measure of expected volatility, fell to 14.84.

For British defined benefit pensions, gilts still matter most. The ten-year yield rose to 5.42% and the thirty-year to 5.94%, near their highest since 2007 and 1998. Higher gilt yields mean lower transfer values. The Budget and a likely Bank of England rise both fall within the next four weeks. Anyone weighing a transfer should have current figures in hand rather than try to time the decision.

Gold rose 1.3% to $4,194, ending two weekly falls, on a softer dollar and lower oil. It is still about 25% below its January high after nine months of conflict in the Gulf. All year it has followed the dollar and interest rates, not the war. That is the case for building the core of a portfolio from Irish-domiciled accumulating UCITS funds, held in the currency the money will be spent in.