What moved this week and what it means for expats in SE Asia

Brent crude rose 6.2% to $116.72 a barrel, its third weekly gain and its highest close since 29 April. Houthi forces struck an Aramco office building in Dhahran, and staff there were told to work from home. On 21 October the United States ordered non-emergency staff and their families to leave Saudi Arabia. Reports say American and Israeli officials are planning strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterms. On Sunday, Saudi air defences intercepted drones and missiles aimed at Riyadh, where three explosions were heard. When trading reopened on Monday morning in Asia, Brent eased about 1%, and gold held near $4,000.

Gold fell 4.1% to $3,994 an ounce, its first close below $4,000 since mid-July. Dearer oil makes it more likely that interest rates stay high for longer, and gold pays no interest. American shares held up better than Asian ones. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, and the Dow rose 0.4% despite a 653-point fall on Friday. Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both fell more than 4%. The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday 28 October. Markets expect it to hold, and see a rise by December as likely.

British inflation rose to 3.5% in September, above the 3.4% forecast, as motor fuel prices climbed almost 30% on the year. That is below the 3.9% earnings growth figure, so the state pension is on course to rise 3.9% next April. Markets expect the Bank of England to raise rates on 5 November. The Budget is on Wednesday, the same day as the Fed. No pension measures have been published, and talk of changes to the tax-free lump sum remains speculation. Larger schemes must connect to pensions dashboards by 31 October.

The ringgit held at about 4.09 to the dollar, the seventh week in the same narrow band. The euro fell 0.5% against the dollar on worries over France's public finances and its 2027 budget. Bank Negara and the Bank of England both set rates on 5 November.

Oil rose 6% and gold fell 4% in the week the fighting reached a Saudi oil company's offices. Many people hold gold as insurance against exactly this kind of event. This week it fell, and it is now about 29% below its January high. Gold has followed the dollar and interest rates this year, not the war. A portfolio that relies on one asset to behave as a hedge is relying on a forecast.

Government bond yields eased. The American ten-year fell to 5.00%. In Britain the ten-year gilt held at 5.37% and the thirty-year fell to 5.74%, still near their highest levels since 2007 and 1998. Higher gilt yields mean lower defined benefit transfer values. With the Budget on Wednesday and a likely Bank of England rise on 5 November, anyone weighing a transfer should work from current figures rather than wait for a better week.

For clients based in Riyadh, Dubai or elsewhere in the Gulf, the American departure order prompts one practical check: whether enough liquid money sits in a jurisdiction and currency they could use at short notice. The long-term core belongs in Irish-domiciled accumulating UCITS funds, spread across markets and held in the currency it will be spent in. Structure does that work without needing to guess which headline comes next.